Three Horizons

There seem to be two different versions of a three horizons model.  One is focused on growing a business and the other which is illustrated here is more focused on social innovation and systems change.  Both provide guidance for thinking about the future.

Horizon 1: "Now" - Business as Usual
This horizon represents the current state of affairs. It includes the existing business models, processes, and practices. In the context of problem-solving, this horizon encourages the recognition of what is currently working and what might need to change.  There may be seeds of change, i.e. innovative practices or emerging trends that could shape the future but are currently marginal.

Horizon 3: "Far Future" - New Paradigms
This horizon is about envisioning radical future scenarios or transformative changes that create entirely new ways of doing things, which could be very different from current norms.  It's essential for tackling complex problems as it allows for "big picture" thinking and the ideation of transformative solutions that are not constrained by the current paradigms or existing limitations.  Also present may be some elements to keep from the existing paradigm.

Horizon 2: "Near Future" - Emerging
Horizon 2 bridges the current and far future by focusing on transition. It requires the nurturing of emerging trends, technologies, and ideas that have the potential to grow and eventually replace the dominant practices of Horizon 1. Horizon 2 is vital for developing and scaling novel approaches. It's where one can experiment with new solutions on a small scale before they become mainstream.

The model is depicted as three overlapping curves to illustrate that while each horizon is distinct, they are interconnected and influence one another. The decline of Horizon 1 activities makes room for the emerging practices of Horizon 2, which eventually evolve into the new paradigms of Horizon 3.