Stacey Matrix

The Stacey Matrix is a conceptual framework that helps organizations make strategic decisions. It was developed by Ralph Stacey, a professor and management theorist, who was interested in the complexity and uncertainty inherent in managing an organization.

Stacey recognized that the traditional linear models of management were inadequate for dealing with the realities of organizational life. He suggested that the level of certainty and the degree of consensus could be used to determine the nature of the decision-making environment.

The horizontal axis represents the degree of certainty—how well can the organization predict the outcome of its actions? The vertical axis represents the level of agreement—how much do people share the same views about what should be done?

In Stacey's view, decisions could fall into one of several regions in the matrix: 

Simple: Where there is a high level of both certainty and agreement, decisions are relatively straightforward and can be managed using routine procedures.

Complicated: When there is a high degree of certainty but less agreement, decisions may require political decision making.  When there is lots of agreement but less certainty judgemental decision making is require.

Complex: Here, there imay be some agreement, but outcomes are uncertain.  Decisions benefit from broader engagement and actions often require an iterative, learning oriented approach.

Chaotic: In areas of both high uncertainty and disagreement, traditional management approaches are least effective, and the way forward is less clear.

Stacey emphasized that as one moves from simple to complex environments, the management style needs to shift from bureaucratic and control-oriented to more interpretive and process-oriented. He argued that in complex environments, where prediction is difficult, management should focus on patterns and emergent processes rather than rigid planning and forecasting.