Results & Discussion

 
I.  In this first section, I am going to present maps showing the potential 
    distribution of Cocain, Heroin and LSD users in Vancouver. 
    The higher the number the more likely it is that the area holds drug addicts.

 
 
 
          1. Which areas have the highest probability of holding cocaine users 
    determined from the distribution of the socio-economic factors  age, gender, 
                                      education, employment status

 

 
Clearly to be seen is the division of the city into an east and a west part . The west part because of holding higher educated people und a lower unemploymentrate  is less likely to have a 'drug problem'. Clearly to be seen as well are Downtown Eastside and Gastown who are taking the maximum values of the scale - which is congruent with our actual picture of Vancouver : Main-and-Hastings and the Area east of it.

 
 
 
 
          2. Which areas have the highest probability of holding heroin addicts
   determined from the distribution of the socio-economic factors  age, gender, 
                                      education, employment status

 

 
Regarding Heroin, the bisection of the city is not as striking as in the case of cocaine but it is still to be seen. Downtown Eastside, Gastown and this time Chinatown as well  leap to the eyes immediately.
Kitsiliano, Fairview, Arbutus and Shaughessy take the lowest values of the scale. 

 
 
 
 
      3. Which areas have the highest probability of holding LSD users 
 determined from the distribution of the socio-economic factors  age, gender, 
                                      education, employment status

 

 
With LSD the bisection of the city becomes further unclear and the areas taking high values increase - not longer only Downtown Eastside and Gastown. 
LSD shows not such a clear spatial pattern as heroin and cocaine do because the use pattern is not as clear, too. The correlation between LSD and particular socio-economic criteria is less distinct than in the case of Heroin and Cocaine.

 
 
I did not provide a scale from 0 to 1 showing a probability in percentage because I wanted to maintain the values in the scales of the three maps. The higher the maximum value of the scale, the higher is the expressiveness of the map. 
The height of the factors, which I used for calculating the scale numbers, reflect the strength of the correlation between the socio-economic criteria and the drug. The higher the factor the stronger the correlation. Consequently, the result of the whole calculating process is of the same nature: the higher the value, the stronger the correlation. 
What does this tell us about Heroin, Cocaine and LSD use?
The maximum value of the LSD scale is the lowest while the maximum of the Heroin scale is the highest. Correspondingly, LSD is used by a broader public than heroin is. Therefore, heroin user are clearer to be spatially located because the connection to particular socio-economic criteria is stronger. 

 
 
 
 
           4. Which areas have the highest probability of holding 
                                Cocaine and Heroin users 
   determined from the distribution of the socio-economic factors  age, gender, 
                                      education, employment status

 
 

 
 
 
 
               5. Which areas have the highest probability of holding 
                                Cocaine, Heroin and LSD users 
  determined from the distribution of the socio-economic factors  age, gender, 
                                      education, employment status

 

 
As mentioned before, the correlation between Cocaine, Heroine and socio-economic criteria is higher. Consequently, the maximum value of the scale is higher, too. 

 
 
                                    How realistic are my results?

Our intuition tells us, that the results seem realistic - unfortunately, intuition is no appropriate scale to measure truth. Coincidently, the Vancouver Sun published an article about the distribution of deaths that are due to cocaine and heroin. Their distribution map reflects excactly my results. 
 

The highest numbers of deaths are to be found in area 2 - Downtown Eastside and Gastown. These areas take the highest values in my maps as well. 
The lowest numbers occur in the west part of the city, area 4 - that corresponds with my results.
Areas 3, 5 and 6 have similiar values, area 6 a little bit lower than the other two - my results show the same pattern. 
Area 1 is inbetween area 2 and the areas 3,5,6. In my map, area 1 shows an unregular pattern. It contains all values of the scale, from highest to the lowest. Building the average, it should be somewhere in the middle of the scale -  thus the value for area 1 in the newspaper could meet my values, too. 

 
 
 
 
                              II. Market Analysis for Dealers
The intention of my second analysis part is to find out, which areas are best suitable for dealers to sell their drugs, based on numbers of customers and safety.

 

 
Discussion:
 
  • As black circles to be seen are the buffers around police stations.
  • The areas with the highest value for drug usage are under insense police observation. That makes it very risky to deal here. That show the black circles at Main-and-Hastings and the rest of  Downtown East. 
  • The best place to sell drugs is where are still a lot of customers but what is not too close to police stations and near to skytrain stations: Cambie-Hastings/Dunsmuir Area.
  • Referring to the low number of customers in the Westside, especially in the North-West, this would be the worst place for a dealer to open his business. 
  • Very good spots occur in Downtown East, where the highest numbers of customers are, and in the Eastside of the city near Broadway/Nanaimo, Commercial/Kingsway and south of it.

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 1 .  Background Research
 2 .  Data Collection, Preparation, Manipulation
 3 .  Methodology		  4 .  Spatial Analysis
 5 .  Results & Discussion 
 6.   Problems & Errors