Overview

Transportation dynamics in cold climates differ significantly from those in cities with milder weather conditions. Extremely cold winters influence individual mode choices, increase vehicle idling and cabin heating requirements, compromise road conditions, and lead to more frequent atmospheric stability. Decarbonization strategies effective in other cities may not be suitable for cold climate cities, such as those in Canada, northern Europe, and Asia, which require tailored approaches.

Objectives

In this Environment and Climate Change Canada-funded project, we aim to explore urban mobility options uniquely suited to cold-climate cities.

Methodology

Our approach includes collecting real-world transportation data (traffic volume, speed, fleet composition, fleet technology), measuring real-world driving emissions for selected technologies using Portable Emission Measurement Systems (PEMS), conducting powertrain simulations, developing data-driven models for cold climate emission factors, and employing machine learning and AI for traffic forecasting in cold climates. We will also develop a bottom-up emission inventory, perform emission speciation and gridding, and utilize atmospheric chemical transport modeling.

Current Status

Three HQPs from the University of Alberta and Simon Fraser University are jointly advancing this project. Their work includes measuring real-world driving emissions under cold Edmonton conditions using a Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS) at the University of Alberta. With a mobile source emission model, a weather forecast model, and chemical transport models now deployed and validated, the project team is focusing on refining cold-climate emissions estimates. This involves adjusting winter idling times (since vehicles idle more in cold weather), updating driving cycles, integrating newly acquired traffic data from StreetLight, and recalibrating the cold-start period—recognizing that exhaust catalysts reach operating temperature more slowly in low temperatures. Additionally, emission factors are being updated based on the collected PEMS data to more accurately capture the influence of cold climates on vehicle emissions.

Role of hydrogen: Decarbonizing freight transport using hydrogen and its impact on global warming force- Case of Alberta 

The project is also closely examining the impacts of decarbonizing Alberta’s transportation sector by shifting toward hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks. In Alberta, the hydrogen value chain—from steam-reforming natural gas to storing, piping, and dispensing it—introduces hydrogen leakage into the atmosphere. Because hydrogen competes with methane for OH radicals, it could potentially alter methane oxidation and, in turn, its global warming impact. Using our modeling tools, we plan to explore various scenarios for the future of Alberta’s heavy-duty trucking industry transitioning to hydrogen, while continuously monitoring the net effect on atmospheric warming.

Collaborators:

CREATE researchers:

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