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Postscript version of this file

Proof of 4): Fix tex2html_wrap_inline69 for tex2html_wrap_inline71 such that

displaymath73

Given N(T)=n we compute the probability of the event

displaymath77

Intersection of A and N(T)=n is ( tex2html_wrap_inline83 ):

multline6

whose probability is

displaymath85

So

align11

Divide by tex2html_wrap_inline87 and let all tex2html_wrap_inline89 go to 0 to get joint density of tex2html_wrap_inline91 is

displaymath93

which is the density of order statistics from a Uniform[0,T] sample of size n.

5) Replace the event tex2html_wrap_inline99 with tex2html_wrap_inline101 . With A as before we want

multline24

Note that B is independent of tex2html_wrap_inline107 and that we have already found the limit

displaymath109

We are left to compute the limit of

displaymath111

The denominator is

displaymath113

so

displaymath115

Finally

displaymath117

Thus

align40

This gives the conditional density of tex2html_wrap_inline91 given tex2html_wrap_inline99 as in 4).

Inhomogeneous Poisson Processes

The idea of hazard rate can be used to extend the notion of Poisson Process. Suppose tex2html_wrap_inline123 is a function of t. Suppose N is a counting process such that

displaymath129

and

displaymath131

Then N has independent increments and N(t+s)-N(t) has a Poisson distribution with mean

displaymath137

If we put

displaymath139

then mean of N(t+s)-N(T) is tex2html_wrap_inline143 .

Jargon: tex2html_wrap_inline145 is the intensity or instaneous intensity and tex2html_wrap_inline147 the cumulative intensity.

Can use the model with tex2html_wrap_inline147 any non-decreasing right continuous function, possibly without a derivative. This allows ties.


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Richard Lockhart
Tuesday October 31 13:01:13 PST 2000