Research contributions

Mark is a specialist in Political Behaviour, Political Psychology and Political Methodology. Substantively, his research primarily falls into three areas: political identities and political decision-making; conditions of democratic responsiveness and accountability; and polls and electoral outcomes. His research focuses on political information, public opinion, political identities, norms and election campaigns within North American and European countries. His methodological interests concern the analysis of longitudinal data (time series, panel, network, etc.) with secondary interests in Bayesian analysis and survey/lab experiment design.

Articles and chapters

Groenendyk, Eric, Erik Kimbrough and Mark Pickup. 2022. “How Norms Shape the Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” American Journal of Political Science (Published Online):1-16. DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12717
Pickup, Mark. 2022. “Equation Balance in Time Series Analysis: Lessons Learned and Lessons Needed.” Political Science Research and Methods 10:890-900. DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2022.51
Hix, Simon, Clifton van der Linden, Joanna Massie, Mark Pickup and Justin Savoie. 2022. “Where is the EU-UK Relationship Heading? A Conjoint Survey Experiment of Brexit Trade-Offs.” European Union Politics (Published Online):1-22. DOI: 10.1177/14651165221123155
Hopkins, Vincent, Mark Pickup and J. Scott Matthews. 2022. “Ambiguous COVID-19 Messaging Increases Unsafe Socializing Intentions.” Journal of Behavioral Public Administration 5(2):1-15. DOI: 10.30636/jbpa.52.299.
Pickup, Mark, Dominik Stecuła and Clifton van der Linden. 2022. “Who Shares Conspiracy Theories and other Misinformation about Covid-19 Online: Survey Evidence from Five Countries.” Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media 2:1-38. DOI: 10.51685/jqd.2022.024
De Rooij, Eline A., Mark Pickup and Dominik Stecula. 2022. “Populist Media Diets.” Social Science Quarterly 103(4): 975-991. DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13178
Pickup, Mark and Vincent Hopkins. 2022. “Transformed-Likelihood Estimators for Dynamic Panel Models with a Very Small T.” Political Science Research and Methods 10(2):333-352. DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2020.30
Pickup, Mark and Paul Kellstedt. 2021. “Balance as a Pre-Estimation Test for Time Series Analysis.” Political Analysis First View: 1-10. DOI: 10.1017/pan.2022.4
Pickup, Mark, Eline de Rooij, Clifton van der Linden and Matthew Goodwin. 2021. “Brexit, COVID-19 and Attitudes Towards Immigration in Britain.” Social Science Quarterly 102:2184-2193. DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13010
Stecuła, Dominik and Mark Pickup. 2021. “Social Media, Cognitive Reflection, and Conspiracy Beliefs.” Frontiers in Political Science 3(Article 647957). DOI: 10.3389/fpos.2021.647957
Stecuła, Dominik and Mark Pickup. 2021. “How populism and Conservative media fuel conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 and what it means for COVID-19 behaviors.” Research and Politics 8(1):1-9. DOI: 10.1177/2053168021993979
Pickup, Mark, Erik Kimbrough and Eline de Rooij. 2021. “Expressive Politics as (Costly) Norm Following.” Political Behavior (Published online). DOI:10.1007/s11109-020-09667-6
Pickup, Mark, Dominik Stecula and Clifton van der Linden. 2020. “Novel Coronavirus, Old Partisanship: COVID-19 Attitudes and Behaviors in the United States and Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 53(2): 357-364. DOI:10.1017/S0008423920000463
Goodwin, Matthew, Simon Hix and Mark Pickup. 2020. “For and Against Brexit: A Survey Experiment of the Impact of Campaign Frames on Public Attitudes toward EU Membership.” British Journal of Political Science. 50(2):481-495. DOI:10.1017/S0007123417000667
Pickup, Mark. 2020. “Dynamic Systems of Equations.” In The Sage Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations Eds. Luigi Curini and Robert Franzese. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications, Inc.
Pickup, Mark. 2020. “Time Series Analysis.” In Sage Encyclopaedia of Research Methods. Eds. Paul Atkinson, Sara Delamont, Melissa Hardy, and Malcolm Williams. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications, Inc. DOI:10.4135/9781526421036863803.
Pickup, Mark, Erik O. Kimbrough and Eline A. de Rooij. 2019. “Identity and the Self-Reinforcing Effects of Norm Compliance.” Southern Economic Journal. 86(3): 1222–1240. DOI:10.1002/soej.12410
Bevan, Shaun, Will Jennings and Mark Pickup. 2019. “Problem detection in legislative oversight: An analysis of legislative committee agendas in the U.K. and U.S.” Journal of European Public Policy. 26(10): 1560-1578. DOI:10.1080/13501763.2018.1531910
Hopkins, Vincent, Mark Pickup and Heike Klüver. 2019. “The Influence of Cause and Sectional Group Lobbying on Government Responsiveness.” Political Research Quarterly. 72(3): 623–636. DOI:10.1177/1065912918796326
Matthews, J. Scott and Mark Pickup. 2019. “Economic News and Partisan Bias in Economic Perceptions.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. 52(2):303-321. DOI:10.1017/S0008423918000501
Klüver Heike and Mark Pickup. 2018. “Are They Listening? Public Opinion, Interest Groups and Government Responsiveness.” West European Politics. 42(1): 91-112. DOI:10.1080/01402382.2018.1483662
De Rooij, Eline A., Matthew J. Goodwin, Mark Pickup. 2018 “The Differential Impact of Threats on Ethnic Prejudice toward Three Minority Groups in Britain.” Political Science Research Methods 6(4): 837-845. DOI:10.1017/psrm.2017.24
Pickup, Mark, Paul Gustafson, Davor Cubranic, and Geoffrey Evans. 2017. “OrthoPanels: An R Package for Estimating a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects Using the Orthogonal Reparameterization Approach.” The R Journal 9(1): 60-76. https://journal.r-project.org/archive/2017/RJ-2017-003/index.html
Fuji Johnson, Genevieve, Mark Pickup, Eline A. de Rooij, and Rémi Léger. 2017. “Into the Open: Data Access and Research Transparency in Canadian Political Science.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 50: 311-328. DOI:10.1017/S0008423917000026
Snijders, Tom A.B. and Mark Pickup. 2017. “Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models for Network Dynamics.” In Oxford University Press Handbook of Political Networks. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Ford, Robert ,Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien. 2016. “From Polls to Votes to Seats: Forecasting the 2015 British Election.” Electoral Studies 41: 244-249. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.013
Manger, Mark S. and Mark A. Pickup. 2016. “The Coevolution of Trade Agreement Networks and Democracy.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(1): 164-191. DOI:10.1177/0022002714535431
Ford, Robert, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien. 2016. “Polls and Votes.” In Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications, Inc. pp. 787-812.
Pickup, Mark and Colin Whelan. 2015. “Differentiating the issue priorities of NDP supporters.” In Reviving Social Democracy: The Near Death and Surprising Rise of the Federal NDP. Eds. David Laycock and Lynda Erikson. UBC Press.
Immerzeel, Tim and Mark Pickup. 2015. “Populist Radical Right Parties Mobilizing 'the People'? The Role of Populist Radical Right Success in Voter Turnout.” Electoral Studies 40: 347-360. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.10.007
Pickup, Mark. 2015. Guest Editor. Special Symposium on the Electoral Mechanisms of Responsiveness. Electoral Studies 40: 515-555.
Pickup, Mark, and Sara B. Hobolt. 2015. “The Conditionality of the Trade-off between Government Responsiveness and Effectiveness: The Impact of Minority Status and Polls in the Canadian House of Commons.” Electoral Studies 40: 517-530. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.07.003
De Rooij, Eline A., Matthew J. Goodwin and Mark Pickup. 2015. “Threat, Prejudice and the Impact of the Riots in England.” Social Science Research (51): 369-383. DOI:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2014.09.003
Pickup, Mark. 2014. Introduction to Time Series. Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications.
Chzhen, Yekaterina, Geoffrey Evans, and Mark Pickup. 2014. “When do Economic Perceptions Matter for Party Approval?” Political Behavior 36: 291-313. DOI:10.1007/s11109-013-9236-2
Pickup, Mark and Geoffrey Evans. 2013. “Addressing the Endogeneity of Economic Evaluations in Models of Political Choice.” Public Opinion Quarterly 77(3): 735-54. DOI:10.1093/poq/nft028
Wlezien, Christopher, Will Jennings, Robert Ford, Stephen Fisher and Mark Pickup. 2013. “Polls and the Vote in Britain.” Political Studies 61(S1): 129–54. DOI:10.1111/1467-9248.12008
Manger, Mark, Mark Pickup and Tom Snijders. 2012. “A Hierarchy of Preferences: A Longitudinal Network Analysis Approach to PTA Formation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution (56): 852-77. DOI:10.1177/0022002712438351
Matthews, J. Scott, Mark Pickup and Fred Cutler. 2012. “The Mediated Horse Race: Campaign Polls and Poll Reporting.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. 45(2): 261-87. (Shortlisted for the John McMenemy Prize for the best article published in volume 45 of the Canadian Journal of Political Science.) DOI:10.10170S0008423912000327
Pickup, Mark, J. Scott Matthews, Will Jennings, Robert Ford and Stephen Fisher. 2011. “Why did the polls Overestimate Lib Dem support? Sources of Polling Error in the 2010 British General Election.” Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties 21: 179-209. DOI:10.1111/1467-9248.12008
Fisher, Stephen, Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien. 2011. “From Polls to Votes to Seats: Forecasting the 2010 British Election.” Electoral Studies 30(2):250-57. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005
Evans, Geoffrey and Mark Pickup. 2010. “Reversing the Causal Arrow: The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions in the 2000-2004 US Presidential Election Cycle.” Journal of Politics 72(4): 1236-51. DOI:10.1017/s0022381610000654
Pickup, Mark. 2010. “Campaign Election Polls and Democracy in Canada.” In Perspectives on the Canadian Voter: Puzzles of Influence and Choice. Eds. Laura Stephenson and Cameron Anderson. UBC Press.
Pickup, Mark. 2009. Guest Editor. Special Symposium on Measurement Methods for Better Longitudinal Modelling. Electoral Studies 28(3): 349-436.
Pickup, Mark. 2010. “Better Know Your Dependent Variable: A Multination Analysis of Government Support Measures in Economic Popularity Models.” British Journal of Political Science 40: 449–68. DOI:10.1017/S0007123409990421
Pickup, Mark. 2009. “Measure Twice, Model Once: Introduction to Methods for Better Longitudinal Measurement.” Electoral Studies 28(3): 354-67. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2009.05.012
Pickup, Mark and Christopher Wlezien. 2009. “On Filtering Longitudinal Public Opinion Data: Issues in Identification and Representation of the True Change.” Electoral Studies 28(3): 349-53. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2009.05.014
Pickup, Mark. 2009. “Testing for Fractional Integration in Party Popularity in the Presence of Structural Breaks.” Journal of Elections, Parties and Public Opinion 19: 105-16.
Provost, Colin, Brian Gerber and Mark Pickup. 2009. “Flying under the Radar? Political Control and Bureaucratic Resistance in the Bush EPA.” In President George W. Bush's Influence over Bureaucracy and Policy: Extraordinary Times, Extraordinary Powers Palgrave Macmillan.
Pickup, Mark. 2009. “The Next Generation of US Presidential Election Prediction Models.” In Development of a Methodology for the Prediction of Winners in American Elections. Ed. Chandra S. Putcha. The Edwin Mellen Press.
Pickup, Mark and Richard Johnston. 2008. “Campaign Trial Heats as Election Forecasts: Measurement Error and Bias in 2004 Presidential Campaign Polls.” International Journal of Forecasting 24(2)2: 270-82. DOI:0.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.007
Pickup, Mark and Richard Johnston. 2007. “Campaign Trial Heats as Election Forecasts: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian Elections.” Electoral Studies 26: 460-76. DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2007.03.001
Pickup, Mark. 2006. “Globalisation, Politics, and Provincial Government Spending in Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 39: 883-917. (Shortlisted for the John McMenemy Prize for the best article published in volume 39 of the Canadian Journal of Political Science.) http://www.jstor.org/stable/25166031
Pickup, Mark, Anthony Sayers, Rainer Knopff and Keith Archer. 2004. “Social Capital and Civic Community in Alberta.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 37: 617-45. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25165694

Book

Introduction to Time Series Analysis

Introducing time series methods and their application in social science research, this practical guide to time series models is the first in the field written for a non-econometrics audience. Giving readers the tools they need to apply models to their own research, this unique book demonstrates the use of—and the assumptions underlying—common models of time series data, including finite distributed lag; autoregressive distributed lag; moving average; differenced data; and GARCH, ARMA, ARIMA, and error correction models.

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