Taco Niet | Just Climate Policies: Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision-Making

While nearly all our electricity in B.C. comes from renewable sources, approximately 80 per cent of our energy system still relies on fossil fuels. Electrifying this 80 per cent entirely with renewable sources, including transportation and residential sectors, would be a huge change requiring a coordinated and concerted effort. The scale of the challenge ahead of us is massive and intimidating.

At the same time, B.C. has seen significant impacts of climate change this year in the form of devastating heat waves, wildfires and floods. Amidst these disasters, Dr. Niet framed the choice we have: we know the world will be really different in 30 years. Will it be because of positive changes we decided to make today, or will we be forced to react to our decision to not act?

Dr. Niet, along with his research group ΔE+, uses energy systems modelling to examine how we can decarbonize and electrify our energy system, while weighing the trade-offs that come with these changes. He invoked the quote by statistician George E. P. Box that “All models are wrong, but some are useful,” emphasizing that models are useful tools only when we understand what they can do, and what their limits are.

The models that Dr. Niet and ΔE+ have been developing explore optimal mixes of energy technologies while considering different policies and strategies for decarbonization. In addition to energy, other systems can be included and considered in these models. Climate, Land, Energy and Water Systems (CLEWs) models, for example, include all of those resource systems and the interactions between them for a more holistic view of positive and negative changes.

Another vital component, one that is difficult to define and incorporate into a model, is how changes to the energy system intersect with justice and equity.

Dr. Niet offered a few examples of this intersection with justice. He highlighted a study done by Tony Reames that discovered how LED light bulbs in a low-income neighbourhood cost twice as much as LEDs in a wealthy neighbourhood. It was easier for the big box stores, which were situated in the wealthy suburbs, to partner with utilities and offer rebates for the energy-efficient products, compared to the smaller stores in lower-income neighbourhoods. 

Systems of oppression are interlinked, and climate policies and decisions should not add inequality to the system. However, the situation is complicated and what may appear as a great policy can have many negative effects. An example of this is the electrification of our energy sectors. If no action is taken, the negative effects of climate change will be felt disproportionately by already marginalized individuals and communities. However, while electrification would have positive environmental impacts, it could also easily raise electricity costs. While some may not be affected by this, or even notice the change, others would be pushed into energy poverty. 

Complicated systems like this are why engaging different communities in decision-making is so important. The use of open-source modelling is also incredibly important in ensuring that the work done can be shared with others and benefit more communities. As well, there is a need for collaboration between experts of different fields and backgrounds to help observe and understand the issues from all perspectives. The emphasis this presentation had on the need for interdisciplinarity and engagement of communities beyond academia is a reminder that research and policies can only effectively solve problems when the most vulnerable communities are engaged. It leads us to think about how to make informed decisions while valuing, not burdening, these communities.

Dr. Niet’s presentation helps us to understand the importance of climate justice when it comes to engineering work. Issues are not isolated from one another, and this must be recognized when discussing climate policies for the future. Modelling tools can be effective in determining how our choices today impact us and future generations in the years to come. Going forward, let us be encouraged by Dr. Niet to be conditionally optimistic: let us recognize that our situation can be improved, but that "we must actively work to make things better."