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Marginal Seats in the 2015 Canadian Election

Some of the more interesting local contests to watch in the 2015 elections are the marginal seats, where the winning candidates in the 2011 election only won with very slim margins of victory.

Because there has been a major redisitrbution of seats since the 2011 election, the impact of close 2011 victories on the 2015 election must involve an anlaysis of the votes cast in 2011 transposed into the new electoral districts. A total of 30 new seats have been added to the 308 ridings in the 2011 election. Elections Canada has provided transposed results, in which the votes cast in each polling station in the 2011 election are added up according to which new ridings those polling stations would belong in 2015.

Since the 2015 election will be fought with the new riding numbers and boundaries, it is preferable to refer to these transposed results if one wants to understand the situation faced in 2015 compared to the 2011 election.

Transposing the results have two effects. First, in a few rare instances, a riding which was won in the 2011 election by one party would have been won by another, had the election been fought with the 2015 boundaries. For example, the riding of Avalon in Newfoundland was actually won by the Liberal candidate in 2011 with a 3.5% lead; but if the new boundaries had been in effect the Conservative Party candidate would have won Avalon with a 3.9% margin.

Secondly, the number of marginal ridings changes. Using the transposed results for the 2011 general elections, 52 seats would have been won with a margin of less than 5% over the second placed party in their ridings, compared to 41 using the actual results.

The transposed results also show that a further 41 seats woudl have been won with only between 5 & 10% separating the frist and second placed party candidates.

In total, 93 ridings would have been won with a margin of victory of 10% or less.

Some close 3-way races are seen in the transposed results as well, with 16 districts in the transposed results showing less than 10% separating the first from third parties. In these contests the Conservatives finished a close 3rd in 7 ridings, the NDP in 6, the Liberals in 2, and the BQ once.

Bear in mind that ridings vulnerable to change hands are not limited to seats where marginal victories occured. A large number of MPs are not running for re-election in 2015, and incumbents have historically had an advantage over other candidates trying to win a seat. 30 Conservative MPs (18.9% of the caucus), 13 NDP members (13.7%), and 5 Liberals (13.9%) are not running. In addition one of the two BQ MPs is not in the election.

Clearly, the 2015 election has the potential for considerable change.

 

2011 Success of Parties in Marginal Seats Won with 5% or less in 2008
  BQ CON LIB NDP GRN IND
Marginal Seats Won in 2008 5 17 12 7 - 1
Held in 2011 2 14 3 6 - 0
Lost in 2011 3 3 9 1 - 1
Gained in 2011 0 7 0 9 1 0
Net marginal seats in 2011 2 21 3 14 1 0
Net Gain/Loss -  2008 to 2011 -3 +4 -9 +8 +1 -1

 

 

Seats Won by 5% or Less Margin in the 2011 Election
(Votes transposed into new boundaries)

  Bloc Québécois Conservative Liberal NDP OTH
 Seats  Won 3 19 13 17 0
2nd  place 0 19 19 14 0

 

Seats Won by >5 to 10% Margin in the 2011 Election
(Votes transposed into new boundaries)

  Bloc Québécois Conservative Liberal NDP GRN
 Seats  Won 1 18 12 9 1
2nd  place 4 12 16 9 0

 

Total Seats Won by 10% or Less Margin in the 2011 Election
(Votes transposed into new boundaries)

  Bloc Québécois Conservative Liberal NDP GRN
 Seats  Won 4 37 25 26 1
2nd  place 4 31 35 23 0

Deatils of Marginal Seats Won by 10% or less in the 2011 Election
(Votes transposed into new boundaries)

Prov / Terr Federal electoral district
First
% vote
Second
% vote
Margin
ON Nipissing–Timiskaming
LIB
36.5
CON
36.4
0.1
QC Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup
NDP
36.4
CON
36.3
0.1
MB Winnipeg North
NDP
35.4
LIB
35.0
0.4
BC Cowichan–Malahat–Langford
NDP
43.6
CON
43.1
0.5
ON Mississauga–Malton
CON
37.4
LIB
36.8
0.6
NL Labrador
CON
39.8
LIB
39.1
0.7
ON Markham–Thornhill
LIB
37.1
CON
36.4
0.7
YK Yukon
CON
33.8
LIB
32.9
0.9
ON Scarborough–Guildwood
LIB
35.8
CON
34.7
1.1
BC Surrey–Newton
NDP
35.3
LIB
34.1
1.2
QC Ahuntsic-Cartierville
LIB
31.1
NDP
29.9
1.2
ON Etobicoke Centre
CON
41.9
LIB
40.6
1.3
QC Richmond–Arthabaska
BQ
33.8
NDP
32.5
1.3
SK Regina–Lewvan
NDP
45.2
CON
43.9
1.3
QC Lévis–Lotbinière
CON
39.9
NDP
38.5
1.4
SK Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River
CON
46.9
NDP
45.4
1.5
NS Dartmouth–Cole Harbour
NDP
36.4
LIB
34.7
1.7
QC Honoré-Mercier
NDP
35.2
LIB
33.5
1.7
BC Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke
NDP
39.4
CON
37.6
1.8
ON Don Valley East
LIB
38.4
CON
36.4
2.0
ON Scarborough North
NDP
35.4
CON
33.4
2.0
NS Sydney–Victoria
LIB
39.9
CON
37.8
2.1
MB Elmwood–Transcona
CON
46.9
NDP
44.8
2.1
QC Louis-Saint-Laurent
NDP
39.9
CON
37.6
2.3
ON Willowdale
CON
41.5
LIB
39.2
2.3
ON Don Valley West
CON
43.9
LIB
41.5
2.4
QC Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel
BQ
38.3
NDP
35.6
2.7
ON London North Centre
CON
37.1
LIB
34.2
2.9
NS Kings–Hants
LIB
39.6
CON
36.6
3.0
ON Don Valley North
CON
40.3
LIB
37.3
3.0
ON Scarborough Centre
CON
34.9
LIB
31.9
3.0
ON Sault Ste. Marie
CON
40.4
NDP
37.4
3.0
ON Waterloo
CON
41.4
LIB
38.3
3.1
QC Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount
LIB
38.2
NDP
35.1
3.1
ON Scarborough–Rouge Park
LIB
34.8
CON
31.6
3.2
ON Scarborough Southwest
NDP
34.9
CON
31.7
3.2
ON Toronto Centre
LIB
39.7
NDP
36.5
3.2
PEI Malpeque
LIB
42.4
CON
39.1
3.3
QC Pierrefonds–Dollard
NDP
34.1
LIB
30.5
3.6
NL Avalon
CON
37.1
LIB
33.2
3.9
QC Brossard–Saint-Lambert
NDP
36.8
LIB
32.8
4.0
QC Lac-Saint-Louis
LIB
34.1
NDP
30.1
4.0
ON Niagara Centre
NDP
43.2
CON
39.1
4.1
BC Courtenay–Alberni
CON
44.9
NDP
40.7
4.2
BC Surrey Centre
NDP
40.0
CON
35.7
4.3
BC North Island–Powell River
CON
46.0
NDP
41.7
4.3
QC Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
BQ
33.1
NDP
28.8
4.3
BC Burnaby South
NDP
44.0
CON
39.6
4.4
MB Winnipeg South Centre
CON
41.2
LIB
36.6
4.6
BC Vancouver Centre
LIB
31.0
NDP
26.3
4.7
BC Nanaimo–Ladysmith
NDP
45.3
CON
40.4
4.9
ON Mississauga Centre
CON
41.7
LIB
36.7
5.0
ON Etobicoke–Lakeshore
CON
40.2
LIB
35.1
5.1
BC Vancouver Granville
CON
35.4
LIB
30.1
5.3
BC South Okanagan–West Kootenay
CON
44.8
NDP
39.4
5.4
NB Madawaska–Restigouche
CON
40.5
LIB
34.8
5.7
QC Mount Royal
LIB
41.4
CON
35.6
5.8
ON Kingston and the Islands
LIB
40.0
CON
34.1
5.9
ON Brampton West
CON
42.0
LIB
36.1
5.9
NS South Shore–St. Margarets
CON
42.0
NDP
36.1
5.9
BC Port Moody–Coquitlam
CON
46.5
NDP
40.5
6.0
SK Regina–Wascana
LIB
41.8
CON
35.7
6.1
QC Bourassa
LIB
38.5
NDP
32.4
6.1
NB Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe
CON
36.8
LIB
30.5
6.3
ON Ajax
CON
44.2
LIB
37.9
6.3
QC Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix
NDP
38.2
BQ
31.7
6.5
PEI Charlottetown
LIB
39.5
CON
32.7
6.8
ON Brampton East
NDP
37.6
LIB
30.7
6.9
NS Halifax West
LIB
37.3
CON
30.2
7.1
BC Vancouver Quadra
LIB
43.5
CON
36.4
7.1
ON Orléans
CON
45.2
LIB
38.0
7.2
ON Mississauga East–Cooksville
CON
43.5
LIB
36.2
7.3
ON York South–Weston
NDP
40.1
LIB
32.8
7.3
ON Hamilton East–Stoney Creek
NDP
44.3
CON
36.9
7.4
ON Toronto–St. Paul's
LIB
39.9
CON
32.4
7.5
ON Richmond Hill
CON
43.5
LIB
35.6
7.9
QC Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia
BQ
34.5
NDP
26.6
7.9
ON Kitchener Centre
CON
40.4
LIB
32.3
8.1
QC Sherbrooke
NDP
43.5
BQ
35.3
8.2
QC Jonquière
NDP
42.5
CON
34.1
8.4
ON Eglinton–Lawrence
CON
46.8
LIB
38.4
8.4
QC Papineau
LIB
37.9
NDP
29.5
8.4
SK Saskatoon West
NDP
51.1
CON
42.5
8.6
BC Vancouver South
CON
42.4
LIB
33.8
8.6
QC Chicoutimi–Le Fjord
NDP
37.7
BQ
28.8
8.9
BC Burnaby North–Seymour
CON
44.2
NDP
35.2
9.0
NB Beauséjour
LIB
40.7
CON
31.7
9.0
ON Ottawa–Vanier
LIB
38.1
NDP
28.7
9.4
QC Salaberry–Suroît
NDP
43.6
BQ
33.7
9.9
BC Saanich–Gulf Islands
GRN
46.4
CON
36.5
9.9
QC Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel
LIB
42.2
NDP
32.3
9.9
ON Brampton South
CON
45.4
LIB
35.4
10.0
ON Mississauga–Lakeshore
CON
46.9
LIB
36.9
10.0

 

 

 

Source: Elections Canada

 

I welcome any feedback and suggestions for fresh material to add to this site -

Andrew Heard
Political Science Department  --  Simon Fraser university