| Geog 312: Natural Hazards | |||||||
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| Tropical storm exercise | |||||||
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| Part 1: The hurricane threat: northeast North America “A storm moving northwards along the east coast … could cause losses amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars”. Munich Re (2006), p. 21 ================================================================== Use the historic and prehistoric record in Donnelly (2004) to calculate hurricane landfall probabilities for New York City and adjacent areas. What is the annual probability (p, where p = n/L; and n is the number of events, L is the length of the record in years) of hurricane landfall in Delaware - southern New Jersey (1) versus northern New Jersey-New York (2) versus eastern Long Island - Rhode Island (3) [all 1° squares], for the period encompassed by the sedimentary record, the colonial period, the 19th cnetury, and the 20th century? Are there significant differences between time periods? If so, why? Are there significant differences between areas? If so, why? If insured vulnerability in New York City is $US-100 G, what is your best estimate of annual risk (in $)? Examine the storm surge hazard/evacuation map for the New York area. In the event of a storm surge, what advantages do New Yorkers have versus the inhabitants of New Orleans? What lessons might be learned from the Katrina disaster and applied here as a severe hurricane approaches? New York is discussing the erection of flood barriers across harbour entrances (Barry, 2006). Are the potential benefits (see risk calculation) worth the cost? Part 2: “A hurricane can really spoil your day.” Are they becoming more ornery as a result of global warming? Group discussion – summarize arguments in following articles. |
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